資訊管理學報
汪維揚;林家瑋;
頁: 25-60
日期: 2009/04
摘要: 本研究的目的在探討促成台灣網路遊戲產業成長與競爭動態的關鍵驅力與相互作用過程，並藉此擴展對網際網路相關產業特性的了解。研究以系統觀點將影響台灣網路遊戲產業成長與競爭的互動關係視為一個系統，並以系統動力學(System Dynamics)建立一個包含研發、代理、遊戲、市場、資金等活動要素及互動關係的電腦模型。研究發現影響台灣網路遊戲產業成長與競爭動態的主導性結構，包含了市場的多重成長回饋循環、具時間滯延的研發產能成長回饋循環、國內外網路遊戲產業的競爭關係，以及市場的成長上限。市場的多重成長回饋環循環與市場的成長上限，造就了網路遊戲產業快速而短暫的成長型態；研發產能成長與遊戲產出的時間滯延，以及國內外網路遊戲產業的競爭關係決定了國內外網路遊戲產業競爭的形勢與結果。在市場成長快速的情形下，研發產能成長與遊戲產出的時間滯延，形成了落後產業難以超越的競爭屏障，不但限制落後者的成長機會，也使產業輔助政策的影響侷限在很短的期間內。本研究對台灣遊戲產業先代理後研發的產業發展模式，以及政府政策對網際網路相關產業發展的討論，除可作為產業中不同角色及政府相關政策設計的參考外，對於網路遊戲產業成長的主導性結構的了解，也可以做為一種啟發而有助於對相關產業動態的觀察與理解。
關鍵字: 網路遊戲;產業;成長;系統動力學;
Abstract: This paper adopts a systemic perspective to explore how interlocked decisions and actions by different industrial sectors contribute to the growth dynamics of online game Industry in Taiwan. A system dynamics model, comprising of R&D activities, game agency, game players, and a variety of games in the markets, etc., is built to illuminate essential mechanisms underlying the industrial growth dynamics. With a series of simulation experiments, it is found that multiple positive feedbacks loops, delayed capacity expansion of R&D activities, competitions of Taiwan domestic games and games from abroad, and a limited online game market together lead to a rapid but stagnated growth of Taiwan online game industry. The online game market, driven by several positive feedback loops, i.e. network effects in game player networks, grew so rapidly that it reached its limited size in 5 years. Domestic online game industry with necessary lead times and delays in R&D activities and capacity expansion process was failed to earn the market before the market reached its limit. From a feedback perspective, the stagnated growth of domestic online game industry is found to be resulted from the complex and dynamic interactions between the rapid growth of online game market and the delayed capacity expansion of online game industry as a whole.
Keywords: online game industry;growth dynamics;System Dynamics;simulations;
瀏覽次數: 9721 下載次數: 111
引用 導入Endnote
頁: 25-60
日期: 2009/04
摘要: 本研究的目的在探討促成台灣網路遊戲產業成長與競爭動態的關鍵驅力與相互作用過程，並藉此擴展對網際網路相關產業特性的了解。研究以系統觀點將影響台灣網路遊戲產業成長與競爭的互動關係視為一個系統，並以系統動力學(System Dynamics)建立一個包含研發、代理、遊戲、市場、資金等活動要素及互動關係的電腦模型。研究發現影響台灣網路遊戲產業成長與競爭動態的主導性結構，包含了市場的多重成長回饋循環、具時間滯延的研發產能成長回饋循環、國內外網路遊戲產業的競爭關係，以及市場的成長上限。市場的多重成長回饋環循環與市場的成長上限，造就了網路遊戲產業快速而短暫的成長型態；研發產能成長與遊戲產出的時間滯延，以及國內外網路遊戲產業的競爭關係決定了國內外網路遊戲產業競爭的形勢與結果。在市場成長快速的情形下，研發產能成長與遊戲產出的時間滯延，形成了落後產業難以超越的競爭屏障，不但限制落後者的成長機會，也使產業輔助政策的影響侷限在很短的期間內。本研究對台灣遊戲產業先代理後研發的產業發展模式，以及政府政策對網際網路相關產業發展的討論，除可作為產業中不同角色及政府相關政策設計的參考外，對於網路遊戲產業成長的主導性結構的了解，也可以做為一種啟發而有助於對相關產業動態的觀察與理解。
關鍵字: 網路遊戲;產業;成長;系統動力學;
Growth Dynamics of Taiwan Online Game Industry
Abstract: This paper adopts a systemic perspective to explore how interlocked decisions and actions by different industrial sectors contribute to the growth dynamics of online game Industry in Taiwan. A system dynamics model, comprising of R&D activities, game agency, game players, and a variety of games in the markets, etc., is built to illuminate essential mechanisms underlying the industrial growth dynamics. With a series of simulation experiments, it is found that multiple positive feedbacks loops, delayed capacity expansion of R&D activities, competitions of Taiwan domestic games and games from abroad, and a limited online game market together lead to a rapid but stagnated growth of Taiwan online game industry. The online game market, driven by several positive feedback loops, i.e. network effects in game player networks, grew so rapidly that it reached its limited size in 5 years. Domestic online game industry with necessary lead times and delays in R&D activities and capacity expansion process was failed to earn the market before the market reached its limit. From a feedback perspective, the stagnated growth of domestic online game industry is found to be resulted from the complex and dynamic interactions between the rapid growth of online game market and the delayed capacity expansion of online game industry as a whole.
Keywords: online game industry;growth dynamics;System Dynamics;simulations;
瀏覽次數: 9721 下載次數: 111
引用 導入Endnote